vs. Kateller Toyama (preview)   Leave a comment

Maeda has 2 options for this match; firstly to play the same team we have all season, or secondly to play a younger team trying something new.
A win, draw, or loss is irrelevant in terms of this season, we aren’t going to be in the play-offs and we aren’t going to go to the JFL.

Option 1 – Old team

He can keep playing those same players and formation which have failed all season.

If we win then nobody will care, we are playing Toyama, a team who are currently bottom of the table with only 3 wins this season.

If we draw or lose then Level-5 Stadium is probably going to be even angrier than after the Mito, Gifu or Kitakyushu games.

Option 2 – New team

The other alternative is for Maeda to play a new team with some fresh experimental tactics, lots of young local players trying their best to show what they can do.

If we win then the supporters will be happy. They have seen the future, and can celebrate some new guys coming in and showing the heart which has been missing so far this season. It offers hope that things might get better.
If we draw or lose then people won’t be happy, but it will be more understandable as we didn’t play our ‘best’ team.

Graphical representation
If I try to assume a numerical value to the supporter mood to represent this, in the same way you might use ‘utils’ when referring to game theory then you get a table which looks something like this: The red number shows supporter mood.

A win with the old team means nothing.

A win with a new team would be great to see.

A loss with the old team would be even worse than Kitakyushu.

A loss with a new team is understandable and means nothing.

If you wanted to continue the game theory route then from my numbers you can see the only rational decision is to play a new young team. The worst thing which can happen with a new team is the best thing which can happen with an old team.

Avispa News.
Having had Kazuki make his first appearance back we lost another centre-back as Kobara went off injured and looked bad enough that he won’t be back.
Oh is still out.
Based on how they played against Kitakyushu I’d like to see Osmar and Ishizu play as a minimum, but I don’t know how brave Maeda is going to be.

Kateller Toyama news
They don’t have anyone suspended, and relied on a couple of young loaneess in midfield to try and start things in the away leg, where we were very lucky to come away with a win in the last couple of minutes.
Last time they came to Level-5 Stadium they lost 5-0.

My Prediction

Avispa 3 – 0 Kateller Toyama.

I think we will win easily, but it won’t mean anything if we do it with the same team who got well beaten by Mito and Kitakyushu.

After the game Suzuki Jun tweeted that ‘It was pathetic’, the dressing room need to be given something to be optimistic about.


Posted August 22, 2012 by avispafukuoka in Preview

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